Outlook 201910/11/2023 ![]() To date, a continent with the richest solar resources in the world has installed only around 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, less than 1% of the global total. The big open question for Africa remains the speed at which solar PV will grow. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the rise in Africa’s oil consumption to 2040 is larger than that of China, while the continent also sees a major expansion in natural gas use, prompted in part by a series of large discoveries made in recent years. Higher US output pushes down the share of OPEC countries and Russia in total oil productionĪfrica – the special focus of WEO-2019 – is increasingly influential for global energy trends. In the Stated Policies Scenario, 80% of international oil trade ends up in Asia in 2040, propelled in large part by a doubling of India’s import needs. This means that one of the world’s busiest trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz, retains its position as a crucial artery for global energy trade, especially for Asian countries such as China, India, Japan and Korea that rely heavily on imported fuel. Whichever pathway the energy system follows, the world still relies heavily on oil supply from the Middle East. The region remains by far the largest net provider of oil to world markets, as well as an important exporter of LNG. Pressures on the hydrocarbon revenues of some of the world’s major producers also underline the importance of their efforts to diversify their economies. This share drops to 47% in 2030, from 55% in the mid-2000s, implying that efforts to manage conditions in the oil market could face strong headwinds. Energy security remains paramount, and oil stays in the spotlight By 2025, total US shale output (oil and gas) overtakes total oil and gas production from Russia. ![]() This bolsters the position of the United States as an exporter of both fuels. Shale output from the United States stays higher for longer, reshaping global markets, trade flows and security. Annual US production growth slows from the breakneck pace seen in recent years, but updated official estimates of underlying resources nonetheless mean that the United States accounts for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario, and for 30% of the increase in gas. We estimate that almost one-fifth of the growth in global energy use in 2018 was due to hotter summers pushing up demand for cooling and cold snaps leading to higher heating needs. ![]() Meanwhile, new hazards – from cybersecurity to extreme weather – require constant vigilance from governments. The energy world is marked by a series of deep disparitiesĪ fast-moving energy sector highlights the importance of a broad and dynamic approach to energy security. The attacks in Saudi Arabia in September 2019 underlined that traditional energy security risks have not gone away. The aim is to hold up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrate their consequences, not to guess how these policy preferences may change in the future. The Stated Policies Scenario, by contrast, incorporates today’s policy intentions and targets. Previously known as the New Policies Scenario, it has been renamed to underline that it considers only specific policy initiatives that have already been announced. While this is well below the remarkable 2.3% growth seen in 2018, it would result in a relentless upward march in energy-related emissions, as well as growing strains on almost all aspects of energy security. The Current Policies Scenario shows what happens if the world continues along its present path, without any additional changes in policy. In this scenario, energy demand rises by 1.3% each year to 2040, with increasing demand for energy services unrestrained by further efforts to improve efficiency. Instead, it provides a set of scenarios that explore different possible futures, the actions – or inactions – that bring them about and the interconnections between different parts of the system. More than ever, energy decision makers need to take a hard, evidence-based look at where they stand and the implications of the choices they make. The World Energy Outlook does not provide a forecast of what will happen. And the gap between the calm in wellsupplied oil markets and the lingering unease over geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. The gap between expectations of fast, renewables-driven energy transitions and the reality of today’s energy systems in which reliance on fossil fuels remains stubbornly high. The gap between the latest scientific evidence highlighting the need for evermore- rapid cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions and the data showing that energy-related emissions hit another historic high in 2018. The gap between the promise of energy for all and the fact that almost one billion people still do not have access to electricity.
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